The last Italian prime minister whose surname began with a B — Silvio Berlusconi — was a disaster. The name of the country’s next leader is also likely to start with a B.
Investors want Mario Monti, the technocrat who took over from Mr. Berlusconi last year, to stay as prime minister after an election that will probably be held in March. But they are more likely to get Pier Luigi Bersani, leader of the leftist Democratic Party. While there are risks, such an outcome may not be as bad as it looks — not least because Mr. Bersani has promised to continue with Mr. Monti’s policies and was one of the few advocates of change when Romano Prodi was prime minister in the past decade.
Barring a last-minute miracle, Mr. Bersani, who is backed by trade unions, will be the standard bearer for the left in the coming elections. He was the heavy favorite to win a primary held Sunday against Matteo Renzi, the mayor of Florence.
What happens next is the subject of feverish speculation and intrigue in Rome, where I spent part of last week. Will the Democratic Party and its allies, the radical-left Sinistra Ecologia Libertà, or S.E.L. — which collectively have a firm lead in the opinion polls, with 36 percent support, according to one poll — be able to secure an overall majority in the election? Or will Parliament, which Mr. Berlusconi’s center-right coalition still dominates, change the voting system to deny them that chance? The current electoral law guarantees the coalition with the largest number of votes at least 55 percent of the members of Parliament, but there are various ideas under discussion to cut the so-called winner’s premium.
Another topic of speculation is whether Mr. Monti will endorse a new movement set up by Luca Cordero Di Montezemolo, the Ferrari boss, whose avowed intent is to gather enough votes to secure Mr. Monti’s continuation as prime minister. And what about Mr. Berlusconi, who received an initial conviction for tax fraud in October? Will he re-enter the political fray by forming a new party?
Finally, how well will Beppe Grillo, the comedian who wants to default on Italy’s debts and pull it out of the euro, do? His Cinque Stelle movement, which defies categorization on the standard left-right spectrum, is polling 20 percent.
Italian politics are always colorful. But what happens in the election is not a joke. Despite the European Central Bank’s promise to do whatever it takes to save the euro, Italy still stands fairly close to the financial precipice. If it falls in, the rest of the euro zone will be dragged in, too.
The country’s main problems are its recession and high debt. The Italian economy is forecast to shrink 2.3 percent this year, and by the end of the year, government debt will equal 126 percent of gross domestic product, according to the European Commission.
The Italian government expects the economy will start growing again in the second half of next year. But consumer confidence is shot to bits, investment is being delayed by political uncertainty, previous rounds of austerity are depressing economic activity and interest rates are still uncomfortably high. If the economy fails to turn around, debt will rise above 130 percent of G.D.P. If, at the same time, Italy has a government that is not committed to change, investors could suffer a new bout of jitters.
Predicting what will happen in Italian politics is tricky, given the large number of moving parts. That said, the right is in such disarray that it is unlikely to be a major force in the next election. Mr. Berlusconi’s old party, People of Liberty, is scoring 14 percent in the opinion polls. Its former partner, the Northern League, is at 6 percent. Meanwhile, even if Mr. Grillo does well in the election, he does not want to get involved in any government.
The main question then is whether the Democratic Party and the S.E.L. form a government on their own or whether they team up after the election with a group of centrist parties, including Mr. Montezemolo’s. That, in turn, depends not only on how well the Democratic Party does in the poll, but on whether Mr. Bersani wants a broader mandate for what could be a few tough years of government. It looks as if he wants such a center-left alliance — not least because it would help dilute the influence of the S.E.L.
The question then would be what the center would get in return for its backing. But Mr. Bersani would presumably name some centrists, as well as a few of Mr. Monti’s technocratic team, as ministers. He could also back Mr. Monti for the important, albeit nonexecutive, role of president of the republic.
Such calculations could conceivably change if Mr. Monti endorsed Mr. Montezemolo’s party and helped raise its showing in the election, in turn giving it the power to push for him to stay as prime minister. But although Mr. Monti may be tempted by the scenario — not least because he wants to ensure his overhauls continue — getting involved in party politics would be a high-risk strategy. It could damage one of his prime assets: a reputation for impartiality. What is more, even if Mr. Monti did back Mr. Montezemolo, the centrists might still fail to make a breakthrough.
The most likely scenario then for a post-election Italy is a Bersani government with Monti-esque elements. While that is not as attractive as a complete Monti government, it does not have to be a disaster.
Hugo Dixon is the founder and editor of Reuters Breakingviews.
Political Economy: Shift to Left Wouldn't Destroy Italy http://pixel.quantserve.com/pixel/p-89EKCgBk8MZdE.gif
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