Temps set to soar as emissions grow: report

By environment reporter Sarah Clarke and wires

Updated December 03, 2012 06:54:43

The increasing level of greenhouse gases has the planet on track for a 4 to 6 degree Celsius temperature rise by the turn of the century, a new report has found.

The Global Carbon Project, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, has calculated that emissions have increased by 54 per cent since 1990.

They rose by 3 per cent last year, and 2.6 per cent this year, despite the weak global economy.

Pep Canadell from the CSIRO was one of the authors of the report, and says on current trends, governments globally will have no chance of averting dangerous climate change.

“We are now following perfectly on track of the emissions path that will take us to anywhere between 4 and 6 degrees by 2100, if we don’t do anything different from what we are doing now,” he said.

The figure is at least double the 2 degree target set by UN members struggling for a global deal on climate change.

Dr Canadell says he is surprised by this year’s emissions growth, given the US and Europe are in financial turmoil.

But the study says a few big developing nations are fuelling the emissions growth, with 80 per cent of growth in 2011 due to growth in China.

China’s carbon emissions grew 9.9 per cent in 2011 after rising 10.4 per cent in 2010, and now comprise 28 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions, compared with 16 per cent for the United States.

Globally, the improvement in the carbon intensity of economies, a measure of carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product, has stalled since 2005, according to the study, which analysed data from the US government, the United Nations and statistics from oil company BP.

Emissions in 2011 from coal totalled 43 per cent, oil 34 per cent, with gas and cement production making up the rest.

The authors say while it was technically still possible to limit warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, emissions growth would have to rapidly come to a halt and then fall quickly.

“Unless large and concerted global mitigation efforts are initiated soon, the goal of remaining below 2 degrees Celsius will soon become unachievable,” they said.

Each year of 3 per cent emissions growth made achieving the temperature limit even less likely and ever more costly.

It would require a rapid shift to greener energy and even net negative emissions in the future, where more CO2 is taken out of the air than added.

ABC/wires

Topics: climate-change, environment, australia, china

First posted December 03, 2012 06:44:13

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